According to experts, Ukraine’s counter-offensive in the Russian war of aggression has been underway for two weeks now. So far there have only been small successes, and a breakthrough has not yet materialized.
While Kiev is now taking an “operational pause” to restructure itself, a look at Russia’s military strategy shows how Moscow has adapted over the past few weeks and learned from previous mistakes.
How Russia learned from its own mistakes
Markus Reisner, Colonel of the Austrian Armed Forces, explains to “ nv “In the military there are different domains of warfare: land space, air space, space, information space and cyber space. It is striking that in the domain of land, where the Russians repeatedly made serious mistakes in the first few months, they are slowly beginning to adapt.”
Russia has learned from the mistakes and is now conducting the fights more synchronized than before. “They no longer just bluntly move a column of tanks that attack, incur losses and attack again, but now accompany this with combat helicopters, for example, which fire missiles at the Ukrainians from a great distance.”
Russian assimilation was ‘a nasty surprise for Ukraine’
In addition, there are targeted disturbances in the electromagnetic field along the entire front. “As a result, the Ukrainians have difficulties communicating with each other and can no longer use their drones as well,” says military expert Reisner. This is particularly painful for Ukraine. “Ukraine has shown in a very innovative way over the last few months that it has had a lot of success with the use of drones. It was therefore a nasty surprise for Ukraine that the Russians reoccupied the electromagnetic field for themselves.”
And here, according to Reisner, “a major shortcoming” in the airspace is revealed. “There is a lack of powerful air forces and anti-aircraft defenses. The attack helicopters used by the Russians can attack Ukrainian columns from a distance of eight kilometers. You need anti-aircraft defenses to protect these approaching columns of Ukrainians to prevent the helicopters from attacking them before they even get where they are supposed to attack.”
If Ukraine had more fighter jets, it could work on the Russian positions beforehand. The military expert compares it to D-Day in World War II: “Imagine if the Allied Air Forces had not been conducting these attacks in the weeks and months before the troops landed in June 1944. Then they would have run into perfectly developed positions and provided reserves of the Germans on the Atlantic coast. That is the dilemma of Ukrainians.”
Military expert Gressel sees a great need for Western fighter jets
Another military expert, Gustav Gressel, sees a major problem here. The company’s own aircraft are not sufficient to compete with the Russian air force. “The problem is that the Mig-29 and Su-27 they have launch missiles with semi-active radar guidance. In order to hit the enemy plane, they must illuminate it with a radar beam for the entire period. It’s very noticeable and the Russians are fighting it.” so Gressel in an interview with the “Stern”.
The delivery of Western fighter jets would be a tactical breakthrough, believes Gressel. “Western aircraft have missiles with an active radar seeker that self-illuminate the target. As a result, the Russians didn’t notice much of the enemy aircraft. They only notice this when the missile switches on its radar. This has many tactical advantages. But that will only come in a few months, and that is a problem for Ukrainians today. With western fighter planes they would save themselves some casualties.”
Ukraine goes on “operational pause”.
The fact that Ukraine is inferior in airspace in particular is one reason for the break in the counteroffensive, Reisner adds. Ukraine noticed that the Russians were prepared for the previous plans. “In some places, especially in the central area, the Russians were pushed back from their outpost positions and the Ukrainians were successful in certain areas. But that’s not what you would have expected. The Ukrainians had actually intended a much wider advance. After that came what the military calls an ‘operational pause,'” Reisner said.
The expert has already identified a first adjustment on the part of Kiev. “Ukraine has not used any demining vehicles in the last few days because they were hit very lightly. Instead, they try to hit mine lanes with explosives and then break through.”
By launching attacks more broadly, they are looking for previously undetected gaps in the Russian defense line. “The idea is that you force the Russians to be everywhere at once until they’re overwhelmed.”
The military expert sees this adjustment positively: “The good news is that Ukraine, despite the Russians’ initial defensive success, is not simply continuing to attack blindly, but is trying to reorganize itself.”
