Russia’s ability to maintain its artillery fire rates in Ukraine in 2024 has been strengthened by domestic production of artillery shells and additional ammunition imports from North Korea. The US War Research Institute reports:ISW“. These firing rates are expected to be lower than in 2022, but still significant. Colonel Ants Kiviselg of the Estonian Intelligence Center revealed that Russia has an estimated four million artillery shells at its disposal, enough for another annual “low intensity” campaign.

North Korean shipments increase

He further emphasized that North Korea may have delivered up to 500,000 pieces of ammunition to Russia. With current daily consumption of about 10,000 shells, these supplies could supply Russia for up to another month. Nevertheless, according to Ukrainian military analyst Colonel Petro Chernyk, the current rate of fire of the Russian armed forces is lower than that of the summer of 2022, at 10,000 to 15,000 shells per day. However, Western sources show that North Korean deliveries have increased since the beginning of the likely increased military-technical cooperation between Russia and North Korea increased significantly in September.

Future prospects for 2024

ISW reported that this collaboration is expected to result in additional deliveries in the future. Although an overall decline in Russia’s rate of fire could impact Russia’s ability to conduct large-scale offensive operations, it does not appear that Russia will face significant shortages in the near future. How the balance of power will shape in 2024 depends largely on the extent to which international partners support Ukraine in maintaining effective firepower compared to Russia.