From 2014 until his retirement in 2019, Rüdiger von Fritsch was the German Ambassador in Moscow. Since the start of the Ukraine war he has been publishing analyzes of the international situation and even wrote a book about it. In an interview with “Welt”, von Fritsch now explains why he does not believe in a nuclear strike by Russia.
“If you can’t even defeat Ukraine, you shouldn’t mess with NATO”
“If you can’t even defeat Ukraine, maybe you shouldn’t mess with NATO,” says von Fritsch. “I’m trying to think in terms of probabilities: how likely is it that Russia will resort to nuclear escalation?” asks the former ambassador, pointing to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which allows the use of nuclear weapons when Russia thereby to decide the conflict.
“According to this logic, Vladimir Putin would have been well advised to deploy him in March or April last year, when there was no quick victory,” says von Fritsch. “But what is he doing at that moment? He is escalating his conventional warfare.” When the Russian President spoke increasingly about a nuclear strike in autumn 2022, he mobilized 300,000 soldiers instead. “One can get the impression that he wants to try to win this war conventionally.”
The nuclear power Russia lost the first war in Chechnya, just like the nuclear power Soviet Union lost the conflict with the Taliban in Afghanistan. The nuclear power USA also lost the war in Vietnam. “The logic of nuclear weapons is to deter and not be used because their use threatens to entail self-destruction,” von Fritsch said. World “.
Expert explains why sanctions against Russia work: “Just ask Putin himself”
The ex-ambassador has a clear opinion on the subject of ineffective sanctions. “The sanctions are working, and the easiest way to prove it is to simply ask Vladimir Putin himself.” In interviews, Russia’s president has said several times that the measures would have a significant impact on Russia’s economy.
“The Russian Ministry of Finance recently announced that the budget deficit in the months from January to April was almost 40 billion US dollars – 34.5 billion US dollars had been budgeted for the whole year,” calculates von Fritsch. Last year, Russia was able to compensate for this with temporarily high energy prices. In the meantime, however, other areas such as steel production, timber exports or the construction machinery industry are also feeling the effects.