“There are some who say ‘The Russians are learning from their mistakes’ or ‘The Russians are slowly getting better tactically’,” said Keupp in an interview with ZDF. He clearly contradicts this: “You make the same mistakes over and over again.”
His example: the front near Uroshayne, northwest of Mariupol. “The Russians are standing in front of their trenches, and are also being worn out in front of these trenches. And as long as they do it like that, it’s pretty much the stupidest thing they can do militarily,” said the military expert.
Marcus Keupp: “That was also a complete disaster”
Another example for Keupp is the Marjinka area near Donetsk. There were two major attacks by the Russian army there in September with the aim of surrounding the city. “That was also a complete disaster,” says Keupp, adding that the advancing vehicles were all shot down.
“These are actual attacks,” says Keupp on ZDF. “When the Russians do something like that, they go in really heavily with material – even at the expense of huge losses. “You shouldn’t underestimate that.”
Keupp continued: “In principle, this is still the strategy we know from the summer of ’22: destroy everything and then advance. But both will be difficult.” Because there is less and less artillery available due to the heavy wear and tear.
“This is the moment of truth that will come for the Russian army in winter at the latest”
Second point: Russian supply options are coming to an end. “If they treat their armored vehicles like this, then they can say: ‘I still have endless supplies in the depot.” But that is simply no longer the case: in the Russian camps you can see “what wear and tear means in practice,” says Keupp : The depots are increasingly emptying.
Keupp’s conclusion on ZDF: “All of this paints a picture of an army that has so far relied on: ‘We have very large reserves’.”
The military expert expects that the Russian army will run out of material by winter at the latest: “But this argument is increasingly no longer valid. And if this argument is no longer valid, what will they do then? And that is the moment of truth, by winter at the latest for the Russian army.”