Military expert John Spencer, speaking to the ” star “an early end to the Ukraine war. According to the ex-Major and Pentagon adviser, Ukraine’s current offensive, backed by Western allies, could be instrumental in reaching a turning point in the ongoing war against Ukraine.
He judged Ukraine’s recent counter-offensive a success and told Stern that Russia had “failed with its winter offensive”. Continued support for Ukraine from its Western allies, coupled with Ukraine’s increasing military strength and capability, would increasingly force Russia to the negotiating table, Spencer said.
“In a very strong position” at the political table
The counter-offensive was decisive for Ukraine’s success. Because of this, Ukraine would one day come to the political table “in a very strong position,” according to the military expert.
With regard to the recapture of Crimea, however, the military expert assessed Ukraine’s chances as slim. When asked if Crimea could be part of Ukraine again, he said: “However, I don’t think that the Ukrainians have the military capability at the moment to actually take Crimea”. Instead, the Ukrainians would have to press and tie down the Russians in Crimea, which Spencer said was already happening elsewhere on the front lines.
“The Russian army is a paper tiger”
Spencer praised the strength of the Ukrainian army as a “modern marvel”. Compared to 2014, the Ukrainian military is hardly recognizable and motivation and morale are extremely high. “They even manage to keep the troops from becoming war-weary. Really remarkable,” he commented in an interview with “Stern”.
The situation is different in the Russian army: “All the years of corruption and bribery have obviously left their mark. “The Russian army is a paper tiger in many ways,” Spencer said. However, it is still very deadly and given the will to defend Ukraine totally, the Russian army has to deal not only with the Ukrainian military, but also with 40 million Ukrainians. “And they cannot win this fight,” said the military expert.
Putin has already lost too much
Looking ahead, Spencer said the conflict could last for years, but war in this form will not continue indefinitely. Given his problems with mobilization, his troop levels and geographic location, Putin will not be able to continue this war much longer, Spencer said. After all, the Russian President no longer has much capacity to continue the war at this level and has already lost too much.
Spencer also advocated Ukraine’s admission to NATO: “It would strengthen Ukraine’s sovereignty. It doesn’t matter what the Russians think of it.” The military expert considered the risk of a nuclear escalation by Russia unlikely: “Russia can not fight NATO. It can’t even fight Ukraine properly.”
