The Ukrainian offensive, while slow in parts, has by no means failed, according to military expert Mick Ryan. While defense systems and minefields pose a constant challenge, there are signs that the tide is turning, particularly in relation to Russia’s past artillery superiority.

Despite two months of efforts, the movement of Ukrainian troops remains slow in parts. Some areas could be recaptured, but hard fighting near Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region forced the evacuation of 37 villages.

However, defense expert Mick Ryan, a former military officer, believes the Ukrainian approach is not failing. “It turns out that the defense systems are extraordinarily robust. Above all, minefields are closely staggered, which required a change in strategy,” he said to the “Süddeutsche Zeitung”.

He emphasized that phases of attack and rest are typical in disputes that have lasted for months. “There is movement in the Bakhmut region in the east, while there is a pause in southern Ukraine to plan the next move. It won’t be long before we see renewed attacks here.

Russia no longer has artillery superiority

Asked about Russia’s former artillery superiority, Ryan emphasized that the tide has turned. “Possibly in the past, but with well-aimed strikes, the Ukrainians have reduced those advantages. They destroyed numerous howitzers and attacked supply routes. This is now visible on the battlefield.”

However, he points out that overcoming minefields is still a challenge. Technologies have not made any significant advances over the past few decades, pushing Ukrainian strategy into unpredictable territory.