The US intelligence service suspects that Ukraine’s offensive will not achieve its main goal, the recapture of Melitopol. According to the Washington Post, this information is based on insiders familiar with the confidential forecast. A key goal of the offensive is to disrupt Russia’s land corridor to occupied Crimea.

The US intelligence assessment is based on Russia’s robust defense methods, including minefields and trenches. Ukrainska Pravda quotes the WP as stressing that a successful counter-offensive costing billions is in jeopardy, especially if Western weapons and equipment do not arrive as expected. Furthermore, the Ukrainian offensive was said to be slower than expected, partly influenced by the goal of reducing battlefield casualties.

Can the Ukrainians still surprise skeptics?

The WP notes that despite the bleak forecast, some US officials believe Ukraine may surprise the skeptics. However, a successful continuation of the counter-offensive in the winter would depend on various factors, such as the availability of cold-weather equipment. A defense official stated that Russia might be superior in winter combat.

The key information is that Melitopol is strategically of great importance for Ukraine as it serves as a gateway to Crimea. Ukrainska Pravda also underlines that despite criticism, senior Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, emphasize that the current offensive should not be viewed as a cinematic spectacle, but as a real, human challenge.