Ukraine update: What happened that night
Military experts: Russia keeps making the same deadly mistake
The Russian army suffers massive losses around the city of Avdiivka. At the same time, the offensive there is making next to no progress at all. Military experts at the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) describe the situation as a “microcosm of Russia’s larger failure” to correct past mistakes and adjust strategy.
In plain language: Russia keeps making the same deadly mistakes in Ukraine. The Russians repeatedly send commandos led by ground troops to Ukrainian fortresses. These advances repeatedly led to high losses of soldiers and military equipment. And time and again these attacks are almost unsuccessful.
What can now be observed in Avdiivka was seen, for example, in Vuhledar about a year ago, when Russia sent several “human waves” to the place. The result was a heavy defeat for the Russians. The “ISW” experts write: “These infantry-intensive attacks only destroyed one thing – the Russian units.” As a result, some units would have had to be completely reorganized. At the time, soldiers repeatedly complained that the attacks were pointless, that the fighters were just cannon fodder and that there was a lack of artillery and air support.
The military experts continued: “The fact that two different attacks are carried out in the same ineffective manner shows that the Russian General Staff is neither learning from the lessons taught nor eliminating the mistakes.” There are no new approaches. The role of the Russian commander-in-chief Valery Gerasimov is clear: he is “ultimately responsible” for this failure and the difference between him and the Ukrainian commander-in-chief Valery Zalushnyj (see also message below) is “remarkable”.
Commander-in-Chief: “Treatment warfare poses enormous dangers for Ukraine”
The ground war in Ukraine has become deadlocked – and the Ukrainian commander in chief, Valeriy Zalushnyj, sees this as a great danger. Only a leap in technology can open a way out of this trench warfare, the general wrote in an article for the British magazine “The Economist”. “A trench war takes a long time and involves enormous risks for the armed forces of Ukraine and for the state.” Standstill on the battlefield only helps Russia to compensate for the losses of its army.
Ukraine particularly needs aircraft, wrote Saluschnyj (50). The lack of cover from the air is considered to be one reason why the Ukrainian ground offensive has made little progress this summer. Kiev can only expect the promised F-16 fighter jets from various countries next year. Improved drones would have to make up for the lack of fighter aircraft, the general concluded. The key to success in drone warfare is improved electronic warfare to disrupt and intercept Russian aircraft. Russia is superior on this point.
The Ukrainian army also needs to be better equipped to combat Russian artillery positions. “Currently we have achieved parity with Russia through smaller but more accurate firepower. “But that won’t last,” Zalushnyj wrote. Ukraine also needs modern equipment for mine clearance because the Russian army has created mine belts up to 20 kilometers deep.
“Russia must not be underestimated,” the commander-in-chief wrote. The enemy has lost many soldiers and President Vladimir Putin is afraid of general mobilization. But Ukraine also has problems building up reserves. The circle of men subject to military service must be expanded.
Unlike the recapture of large areas last year, Ukrainian hopes of gaining territory have hardly been fulfilled this summer. However, Ukrainian defenders have weakened Russia’s positions in Crimea and pushed the Russian navy out of the western Black Sea. Zelensky and his leadership maintain the liberation of all occupied territories as a war goal.
Mines killed 264 civilians in Ukraine
Since the start of the Russian invasion, 264 civilians have been killed by mines in Ukraine. The transport authority and the Ministry of Defense said 571 people were injured. Most mining accidents occurred in fields (145), on roads (125) or in gardens (117). The authorities warned against approaching or even touching the explosive devices. The Russian army has mined large parts of Ukraine. But Ukrainian troops have also laid mines for self-protection.
After a large Russian air strike with 20 combat drones on Wednesday night, Zelensky also warned the population to take air alerts seriously and to take refuge in shelters. This applies to cities close to the front such as Kharkiv, Zaporizhia or Kherson, to border areas such as Sumy or Chernihiv, he said in his video address. “It’s important to be careful and not carelessly put yourself in danger.”
Zelenskyj calls for European unity
In the speech, Zelensky called Ukraine an important part of a future united Europe. “I am confident that Ukraine will make our Europe stronger than ever. And we are working as hard as possible to ensure that nothing stands in the way of our joining the European Union.”
He recalled the entry into force of the Maastricht Treaty 30 years ago on November 1, 1993. This laid “the foundation for modern European unification,” said Zelensky. The treaty established the European Union with an economic and monetary union and a common foreign and security policy.
Zelensky said that there are voices critical of Europe in many EU member states – often especially in states that are important for maintaining peace and order in Europe. He didn’t give any examples. But the EU has always proven that it can overcome crises and become stronger “when Europe’s enemies only expect weakness,” emphasized the president.
That will be important on Thursday
The Ukrainian military continues to expect numerous Russian attacks on the ground and air strikes. The situation is particularly tense in the Ukrainian-controlled city of Avdiivka in Donbass. The Russian army suffers heavy losses in soldiers and technology when attempting to conquer the city. Nevertheless, it is getting closer and closer to the Ukrainian supply lines.
