Ukraine update: War will soon be “strategically lost” for Russia, says expert

Ukraine update: What happened that night

“Then there is no longer any conceivable scenario as to how Russia can turn this war around.”

The military economist Marcus Keupp said in an interview with the Swiss portal “WatsonHis forecast confirms that Russia will have “strategically lost” the war against Ukraine by October.

“Russia will no longer be able to regain the initiative. Since December 2022, the Russians have been on defense, they no longer determine where the battle takes place,” said Keupp. Interim offensives like those in Avdiivka would not be successful.

“The ATACMS will also severely wear out their last asset, air combat assets, or force them to be stationed outside the ATACMS range. “In addition, there are the usual problems, logistics, corruption, waste of human life and combat material,” said the military economist.

His conclusion: “If you take all of this together, objectively there is no longer any scenario conceivable as to how Russia can turn this war around. The fighting does not stop, but the war is strategically lost.”

Zelensky announces Ukraine meeting in Malta

Ukraine wants to continue preparing its planned peace summit with a large meeting of national security advisors from numerous countries in Malta. More than 50 participants are expected at the talks in a week, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in his evening video message broadcast in Kiev on Saturday. Turkey will also bring “its weighty voice and attitude” to the negotiations on his “peace formula” in Malta, he said after a telephone conversation with his Turkish colleague Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The Malta meeting at the level of national security advisers of Ukraine’s allies is scheduled to take place on October 28-29. Selenskyj recently informed Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) about this.

Zelensky had presented his “peace formula,” which essentially stipulates the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, as the only viable initiative to end the war in Ukraine. Peace initiatives from numerous other countries, including China and Brazil, met with criticism in Ukraine. Most recently, at the beginning of August, there was a large Ukraine meeting on the “peace formula” in Saudi Arabia, which was attended by representatives from around 40 countries. Russia was not invited there. Ukraine wants to organize a peace summit by the end of the year.

Several dead in Russian attack near Kharkiv

According to official Ukrainian information, at least six people were killed in a Russian attack in the Kharkiv region in eastern Ukraine on Saturday evening. Another 14 people were injured, some seriously, regional military administrator Oleh Synegubow said on Telegram. President Zelensky expressed his condolences to the families of the victims that evening.

Zelensky called for a tough response to “Russian terror.” “We must increase the pressure on the terrorist state,” he wrote on Telegram. “We must confront Russian terror on the front line every day with our results; we must further strengthen the unity of the world in the fight against terror.”

Federal government gives another 200 million for Ukraine reconstruction

Meanwhile, the federal government pledged a further 200 million euros in development aid for Ukraine. As the German Press Agency learned on Saturday, State Secretary for Development Jochen Flasbarth (SPD) promised help during a visit to the capital Kiev and the port city of Mykolaiv in the south of the country. The money is to be used for education, health and drinking water supplies and urban reconstruction. The funds are expected to flow into various programs this year.

According to its own information, the Development Ministry has made around one billion euros available for civil support to Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression. From the federal government’s perspective, reconstruction cannot wait until the end of the war. “We have to help with reconstruction because it is part of the Ukrainians’ internal willingness to resist,” Flasbarth told dpa. You have to repair what is broken – despite the risk of renewed destruction.

British military trains Ukrainian engineers

The British military says it has trained Ukrainian engineers so that they can better protect the country’s energy supply against Russian attacks in winter. “Ukrainian civilians face the deadly threat every day from (Vladimir) Putin’s forces and their indiscriminate bombing of critical infrastructure,” British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said, according to the PA news agency.

The two-week training program was developed at the request of Ukraine, PA reported on Sunday night. Participants were explained how, for example, to assess the effects of various weapons and explosives and where they could place barriers to protect locations.

Kiev’s defense minister praises the effectiveness of the ATACMS missiles

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umjerov thanked his US colleague Lloyd Austin for the delivery of the ATACMS missiles and praised their effectiveness. “This has a significant impact on the battlefield,” Umyerov said on the social network X on Saturday. During the detailed phone call, he also informed Austin about the situation in the combat zone. Umjerow did not give any details. According to a statement from the Pentagon, Austin assured Ukraine of further US support in the fight against Russian aggression.

What will be important on Sunday

In the south and east of Ukraine, Kiev’s armed forces are continuing their offensive to liberate the Russian-occupied areas. The battles in this war of attrition are considered to be extremely costly for both sides.

Jean Harris

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